Over the last few months, I’ve come out with a variety of indexes that focused on the potential efficiencies of electing various new senators and representatives (for instance, in terms of the largest overall right-to-left shift, here and here). Part of this is to help netroots donors have some quantitative basis for seeing how their meager dollars might be best invested.
One thing that’s been missing from the equation, though, is any sense of how effectively those netroots dollars will be spent: not in terms of whether the campaign is likely to make good decisions (which is unknowable), but in terms of whether the media markets where an election takes place are a good buy. Think about how much further one netroots dollar goes in a race in Wyoming or Alaska, where there are few eyeballs to reach and the media markets are cheap, versus a race in New York or Texas. And yet, the result is the same: one more senator or representative.
Last week, Nate at 538.com had a few very interesting posts on this topic (creating the Return on Investment Index, and, then analyzing specific states’ media markets). Nate’s concept of efficiency turned largely on the idea of ‘wasted eyeballs,’ in other words, advertising in markets that bleed across state lines and where therefore ads run in front of non-targeted voters. However, his analysis was focused on the presidential race, where the concept of ‘wasted eyeballs’ may be overrated as a problem; after all, even if ads run in swing state markets bleed over into non-swing states, the voters in those states are voting in the same presidential election too. It may not maximize efficiency in the way a skilled media buyer would like, but it’s all part of a bigger whole.
We don’t have that luxury in Senate, and especially House races, though. Take Virginia as a case in point: Mark Warner needs to advertise in the Washington DC market in order to reach suburban northern Virginia voters, but that means paying top dollar in one of the nation’s most expensive media markets to tell millions of Marylanders to vote for him. (Of course, he can afford it, so don’t break out the tiny violin yet.) Kentucky may be even worse from a pure efficiency standpoint; none of its markets are brutally expensive, but blanketing all of Kentucky means advertising in Evansville, Cincinnati, and Nashville.
Over the flip, let’s look at all of the competitive Senate pickup opportunities. I’ll explain the methodology and the asterisked races after the table; for now, all you need to know is that the lower the number on the right is, the less expensive the race is.
State | Markets | Score |
---|---|---|
Alaska | Anchorage (141) Fairbanks (32) Juneau (24) |
197 |
Maine | Portland (407) Bangor (143) Presque Isle (31) |
581 |
Idaho | Boise (230) Idaho Falls (115) Spokane (390) Twin Falls (60) Salt Lake City (negligible) |
795 |
Nebraska | Omaha (400) Lincoln (274) North Platte (15) Sioux City (157) Denver (1,415 *) Cheyenne (negligible) Rapid City (negligible) Wichita (negligible) |
846 * |
New Mexico | Albuquerque (654) El Paso (291) Amarillo (190) Odessa (negligible) |
1,135 |
Oregon | Portland (1,100) Eugene (229) Medford (163) Bend (54) Yakima (negligible) Boise (negligible) Spokane (negligible) |
1,545 |
Mississippi | Jackson (328) Memphis (658) Biloxi (136) Columbus (187) Hattiesburg (105) Meridian (71) Greenwood (77) New Orleans (672 *) |
1,562 * |
Kansas | Kansas City (904) Wichita (447) Topeka (171) Joplin (154) Tulsa (negligible) Lincoln (negligible) St. Joseph (negligible) |
1,676 |
Oklahoma | Oklahoma City (665) Tulsa (510) Sherman (124) Wichita Falls (155) Ft. Smith (273) Shreveport (negligible) Joplin (negligible) Amarillo (negligible) |
1,727 |
Colorado | Denver (1,415) Colorado Spgs. (315) Grand Junction (65) Albuquerque (negligible) |
1,795 |
Minnesota | Minneapolis (1,653) Duluth (169) Rochester (143) Fargo (234) Mankato (51) La Crosse (negligible) |
2,250 |
New Hampshire | Boston (2,375 *) Burlington (326) Portland (407) |
3,108 * |
Kentucky | Louisville (643) Lexington (479) Cincinnati (880) Evansville (289) Bowling Green (75) Paducah (383) Charleston WV (478) Nashville (928 *) Knoxville (negligible) Tri-Cities (negligible) |
3,227 * |
North Carolina | Charlotte (1,020) Raleigh (985) Greensboro (652) Greenville NC (270) Wilmington (168) Greenville SC (815) Norfolk (negligible) Myrtle Beach (negligible) Atlanta (negligible) Chattanooga (negligible) |
3,910 |
Virginia | Washington DC (2,253) Norfolk (705) Richmond (511) Roanoke (440) Tri-Cities (324) Charlottesville (70) Harrisonburg (86) Bluefield (negligible) Raleigh (negligible) Greensboro (negligible) |
4,389 |
Texas | Dallas (2,336) Houston (1,939) San Antonio (760) Austin (589) Waco (311) Harlingen (319) Corpus Christi (192) Laredo (64) Beaumont (167) Tyler (256) Sherman (124) Victoria (30) Wichita Falls (155) Abilene (113) San Angelo (53) Amarillo (190) Lubbock (152) Odessa (135) El Paso (291) Shreveport (negligible) |
8,176 |
The middle column lists each media market that’s in the state in question. The number next to each media market is the number of thousands of TV households in that media market, according to most recent Nielsen numbers. (I deemed some markets ‘negligible,’ if they were out-of-state markets that barely spilled over the border and represented 2% or less of the state’s total population, thus unlikely to be part of a media buy.) The number on the right is simply the sum of all the TV households in the relevant markets, in other words, the number of households that need to be paid for in order to more or less blanket the state.
As you can see, there’s a pretty clear correlation between the expensiveness of a state and how populous it is. (As Nate points out, the cost per household may vary a bit from market to market, depending on the desirability of that market to advertisers. For the most part, though, the basic rule is that the more eyeballs you need to reach, the more dollars you’re going to pay. So the larger the number on the right is, the more expensive your race is going to be.) However, there can be some variations, depending on the ‘wasted eyeballs’ factor. States with nice clean media markets that correspond roughly to state borders are cheaper than some states that have smaller populations but more porous boundaries (for instance, Oregon is cheaper to blanket than Kansas, while Colorado is cheaper to blanket than Kentucky).
There are a few races that I asterisked; generally, it’s because of the presence of an out-of-state market that covers more than 2% of the state’s population but that’s also cripplingly expensive to compete in and that probably wouldn’t be part of an intelligent media buying strategy. Nebraska is a prime example: about 4% of the state’s population (most of the big empty western part) is served by the Denver market. But c’mon: you aren’t going to see Scott Kleeb TV ads running in Denver. Smart media buying would probably focus on AM radio or direct mail in that part of the state instead. (Adding Denver at 1,415 to the calculus boosts the net cost in Nebraska to 2,261.)
Likewise, a few counties in Mississippi (3% of the state’s population) are in the New Orleans market. (Adding New Orleans at 672 boosts the cost in Mississippi to 2,234, making it a much less attractive prospect. Mississippi also takes in the somewhat expensive Memphis market, but that covers 12% of the state’s voters and can’t safely be ignored.) Also, the Nashville market covers 5% of Kentucky’s population. Bruce Lunsford can pay for that if he wants to, but adding Nashville at 928 boosts the already high costs in Kentucky up to 4,155.
Finally, there’s the question of New Hampshire. The bottom half of the state is considered part of the Boston market, but there is one affiliate based in Manchester that is considered to operate within the larger Boston market. (As Nate points out, it may owe its entire existence to New Hampshire’s weird role in the presidential race and the targeted ad blitz that results.) Not really knowing how that shakes out in terms of ad rates, I’m leaving New Hampshire as is, but figure that the actual costs in New Hampshire are probably lower. [Update: According to DavidNYC, in 2006, the House candidates in NH mostly focused on the Manchester affiliate and steered clear of Boston in general, although the DCCC did a whole-Boston-market moneybomb right before the election.]
And of course, there are the usual caveats that TV and radio advertising are only a portion of a sane advertising strategy, which includes everything from internet and direct mail down to the totally unglamorous world of yard signs and stickers. This is only a rough guide to give you an idea of how expensive a particular race may be, and how far your dollar might go toward making a difference.
I’ll take a look at the House races using the same method tomorrow.
Alaksa appears to be the only appealing investment here. On the other hand, the DSCC will be investing heavily. I think the House is the place to go. While the DCCC has a lot of cash, they have far more ground to cover and there are plenty of cheap seats like LA-04, ID-01, WY-AL and CO-04 to target.
Look at County Democratic organizations such as the Oakland County Democratic Party in Michigan. It is a keay battleground in the presidential race, Gary Peters is trying to unseat Carl Pursell and the local Dems are working to elect more state representatives there. Also look to key counties in North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
I don’t recall ever hearing about anyone in NM advertising outside of the Albuquerque and El Paso media markets.
In some markets, shared ads building the Democratic brand might be a good idea. We have a potential roblem when Denocrats “control” bith Houses of Congress and the approval rating for Congress is at 9%. Sure, Republican obstructionism and Bush take most of the hit; but they don’t take it all.
Where did you find that map for Alaska, 1985? The Soviet Union???? lol Granted, its seems about ready for a come back, so maybe we shouldn’t throw those maps away. haha